Categorical variables were reported as whole numbers and proportions, and continuous variables were reported as medians with interquartile ranges (IQRs) unless indicated otherwise. The RFS and OS for the study population were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences in RFS and OS were examined using the log-rank test. Clinicopathological variables associated with recurrence risk and survival were assessed a priori based on clinical importance, scientific knowledge, and predictors identified in previously published articles.
9 (link),21 (link),22 (link) A correlation matrix was used to evaluate all explanatory variables for collinearity, and plausible interaction terms were tested, including interactions between age, sex, tumor size, nodal status, T stage, resection margin, and capsular invasion. No significant interaction was found; therefore, no interaction term was included in the multivariable analysis. Continuous predictors (ie, age and tumor size) were categorized after being assessed using restricted cubic splines to relax the linear relationship assumptions between continuous predictors and recurrence or death risks.
23 (link) The risk of recurrence and death was increased based on tumor size (approximately 14 and 12 cm, respectively). To be comparable with previous data,
24 (link) tumor size was modeled in the nomograms as a categorical variable (<12 vs ≥12 cm). The associations of relevant clinicopathological variables with RFS and OS were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Backward stepwise selection with the Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to identify variables for the multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. Hazard ratios (HRs) were presented with their 95% CIs.
25 (link) Selected variables were incorporated in the nomograms to predict the probability of 3-year and 5-year RFS and OS rates after curative-intent surgical resection of ACC using statistical software (rms in R, version 3.0.3;
http://www.r-project.org).
26 (link) For allocating points in the nomograms, the regression coefficients were applied to each individual observation to define the linear predictor.
27 (link)The model performance was evaluated by the predictive accuracy for individual outcomes (discriminating ability) and by the accuracy of point estimates of the survival function (calibration). The performance of the nomograms was evaluated using the C statistics by Harrell et al.
28 (link) The C statistic estimates the probability of concordance between predicted and observed outcomes in rank order and is equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
28 (link) A C statistic of 0.5 indicates the absence of discrimination, whereas a C statistic of 1.0 indicates perfect separation of patients with different outcomes. Calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot, a graphic representation of the relationship between the observed outcome frequencies and the predicted probabilities, with a bootstrapped sample of the study group. In a well-calibrated model, the predictions should fall on a 45-degree diagonal line. Last, we plotted Kaplan-Meier curves over the tertiles of patients stratified by the scores predicted by the nomograms in the data set to further assess calibration. The model was validated using bootstrapped resampling to quantify any overfitting. Statistical analyses were performed with software programs (Stata, version 14.0; StataCorp LP and R, version 3.0.3;
http://www.r-project.org). All tests were 2 sided, and
P < .05 was considered statistically significant.
Kim Y., Margonis G.A., Prescott J.D., Tran T.B., Postlewait L.M., Maithel S.K., Wang T.S., Evans D.B., Hatzaras I., Shenoy R., Phay J.E., Keplinger K., Fields R.C., Jin L.X., Weber S.M., Salem A.I., Sicklick J.K., Gad S., Yopp A.C., Mansour J.C., Duh Q.Y., Seiser N., Solorzano C.C., Kiernan C.M., Votanopoulos K.I., Levine E.A., Poultsides G.A, & Pawlik T.M. (2016). Nomograms to Predict Recurrence-Free and Overall Survival After Curative Resection of Adrenocortical Carcinoma. JAMA surgery, 151(4), 365-373.