A detailed description of the data, analytical framework, and statistical methods, partly described in previous work,16 (link) is provided in the appendix .
We estimated location-specific associations using observed data on outdoor temperature and mortality. For this purpose, we obtained information from a dataset created through theMulti-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network . The dataset is composed of observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only (International Classification of Diseases [ICD] codes 0–799 in ICD-9 and codes A00-R99 in ICD-10) in largely overlapping periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, in addition to location-specific meta-variables (appendix ).
We computed future effects under alternative climate change scenarios using modelled climate and mortality projections. First, we obtained daily mean temperature series under scenarios of climate change consistent with the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) defined in the 2014 IPCC report.2 These four scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) correspond to increasing greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, and describe a range of changes in climate and related global warming, from mild (RCP2.6) to extreme (RCP8.5). We generated the temperature series under each RCP by general circulation models (GCMs), which offer a representation of past, current, and future climate dependent on greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, projections for five GCMs, representative of the range of available climate models, were developed and made available by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP).17 (link) The ISI-MIP database provides daily mean temperature for historical (1960–2005) and projected (2006–99) periods, bias-corrected and downscaled at a 0·5° × 0·5° spatial resolution, as single runs of each GCM under each RCP. We extracted the modelled daily temperature series for each of the studied locations in the period 1990–2099 by linking the coordinates with the corresponding cell of the grid, and recalibrated the modelled series using the observed series.18 We computed projected daily series of all-cause mortality as the average observed counts for each day of the year, repeated along the same projection period (1990–2099).
We estimated location-specific associations using observed data on outdoor temperature and mortality. For this purpose, we obtained information from a dataset created through the
We computed future effects under alternative climate change scenarios using modelled climate and mortality projections. First, we obtained daily mean temperature series under scenarios of climate change consistent with the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) defined in the 2014 IPCC report.2 These four scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) correspond to increasing greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, and describe a range of changes in climate and related global warming, from mild (RCP2.6) to extreme (RCP8.5). We generated the temperature series under each RCP by general circulation models (GCMs), which offer a representation of past, current, and future climate dependent on greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, projections for five GCMs, representative of the range of available climate models, were developed and made available by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP).17 (link) The ISI-MIP database provides daily mean temperature for historical (1960–2005) and projected (2006–99) periods, bias-corrected and downscaled at a 0·5° × 0·5° spatial resolution, as single runs of each GCM under each RCP. We extracted the modelled daily temperature series for each of the studied locations in the period 1990–2099 by linking the coordinates with the corresponding cell of the grid, and recalibrated the modelled series using the observed series.18 We computed projected daily series of all-cause mortality as the average observed counts for each day of the year, repeated along the same projection period (1990–2099).
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