In a previous analysis of the samples collected 24 hours apart, we found that not all clones present in a host were detected within a single sample. Twenty-one percent of all
msp1F3 alleles and 28% of all MS16 clones were missed on a single day [30] (
link). Thus, we used the combined genotyping data from both day 1 and day 2, except for samples from enrolment and final visits, where only 1 venous blood sample was taken.
The force of new
P. vivax blood-stage infections (
molFOB) was generated by counting the number of genotypes in each interval that had not been present in the preceding interval. An 8 to 9 weeks interval started on the first day after a regular cross-sectional visit and included all samples collected during passive case detection over two months plus the samples collected at the end of the interval.
molFOB was also determined for both markers combined,
msp1F3 and MS16. In case of discrepancy between the markers for an 8-weeks interval the higher estimate from either marker was used. This approach corrected for imperfect resolution and detectability of a single marker.
Genotyping cannot directly identify relapses;
molFOB measures the combination of primary blood-stage infections and those caused by relapsing hypnozoites. Thus, homologous relapses occurring in two subsequent 2-month intervals would be misclassified as persisting clones. New Guinean
P. vivax strains are known to relapse rapidly [31] (
link), however in regions of high transmission, relapsing clones are usually of a different genotype than the initial blood stage infection [24] (
link). As a consequence the number of homologous relapses that were not detected is expected to be relatively small.
In line with the pharmacokinetic properties of the drugs [32] (
link)–[34] (
link), children were not considered at risk for two weeks after treatment with artemether-lumefantrine and four weeks after treatment with amodiaquine (AQ) plus sulphadoxine-pyramethamine (SP). The force of blood-stage infection for each child and interval was subsequently converted into the number of new clones acquired per year-at-risk.
Similar to previous analyses of
P. falciparummolFOI [23] (
link), generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used for analyses of force of blood-stage infection as well as for incidence of
P. vivax episodes. These models were chosen because they allowed the fixed effects to be specified separately from the random effects (i.e. repeated measurements from the same child over time and unmeasured village factors). Furthermore, the random-effects model allowed for decomposition of the error into between-village and within-village variation.
We fit a Poisson GLMM model with a log link to relate the fixed and (Gaussian) random effects to the number of clinical episodes experienced during a two month interval (defined as febrile illness plus
P. vivax >500 parasites/µl). Covariates were selected based on earlier analyses of the same data [27] (
link). Seasonality was characterized by two readily interpretable parameters: the amplitude, which was half the range between the peak and trough, and the phase, which was the location of the first zero crossing in a cycle relative to the origin in time (in this case, the first week of the year). For computational convenience, they were replaced by sine and cosine terms with fixed phases. For all outcomes except prevalence, an offset was fit to adjust for years at risk. Estimation of these models was done using the LME4 package in R version 2.12 [35] . All point estimates provided throughout the text (except those for seasonal effects) were obtained from cubic splines fit using generalized additive models (
Figure 1) using the MGCV package in R version 2.12 [36] . For a more detailed description of the statistical approaches see [23] (
link). Point estimates for seasonal peaks and troughs were obtained from the GLMMs by setting all other values of the covariates at their means. For the analyses of the effect of exposure on the relationship between age and incidence of
P. vivax malaria, children were stratified into terciles according to the average
molFOB during the entire follow-up.
Koepfli C., Colborn K.L., Kiniboro B., Lin E., Speed T.P., Siba P.M., Felger I, & Mueller I. (2013). A High Force of Plasmodium vivax Blood-Stage Infection Drives the Rapid Acquisition of Immunity in Papua New Guinean Children. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 7(9), e2403.