The hypothetical target population for this analysis was patients who had advanced metastatic or unresectable HCC and did not previously receive systemic treatment, consistent with the patient characteristics of the IMbrave150 trial.
5 (link) A partitioned survival model with 3 health states was constructed for an initial decision regarding therapy with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab or with sorafenib in this economic evaluation.
6 (link) As shown in
Figure 1, the 3 mutually exclusive health states were progression-free disease (PFD), progressed disease (PD), and death. In the 3 health states, OS was partitioned into alive with PFS and alive and with PD. The proportion of patients alive at cycle
t (1-week cycle) was estimated by the area under the OS curve, and the proportion alive with PFS was estimated by the area under the PFS curve. The proportion alive and with PD was estimated by the difference between the OS and PFS curves. The proportions of patients with PFS and OS were based on the results of the IMbrave150 trial,
5 (link) which was validated by comparing modeled PFS and OS results with the observed data. This study followed the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (
CHEERS) reporting guideline (eTable 1 in the
Supplement).
7 (link) The First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China declared this study exempt from requiring institutional review board review and from obtaining informed consent because this study was based on a literature review of publicly available data and on modeling techniques.
Because the data maturity of OS was lower than 40% (96 deaths among 336 patients [28.6%] in the atezolizumab plus bevacizumab group and 65 deaths among 165 patients [39.4%] in the sorafenib group) in the IMbrave150 trial, which reported survival data from only 0 to 16 months (median duration of follow-up, 8.1 months),
5 (link) the present analysis adjusted the OS distribution by using data after 16 months from the open-label, phase 3 randomized clinical trial conducted by Kudo and colleagues.
4 (link) That trial reported the mature OS data associated with sorafenib treatment for patients with unresectable HCC (median duration of follow-up, 27.2 months), and the median OS time associated with sorafenib was 12.3 months (95% CI, 10.4-13.9 months), which is comparable to that in the sorafenib group of the IMbrave150 trial. Therefore, OS in the sorafenib group from the 17th month to the termination of the model was bridged by OS data from the sorafenib group in the trial by Kudo et al.
4 (link) The OS of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab from the 17th month to the termination of the model was estimated by multiplying the reported OS rate of sorafenib in that trial and the HR for the OS in the atezolizumab plus bevacizumab group against the sorafenib group in the IMbrave150 trial.
Su D., Wu B, & Shi L. (2021). Cost-effectiveness of Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab vs Sorafenib as First-Line Treatment of Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma. JAMA Network Open, 4(2), e210037.