Our models focused on using NIs to treat different age and risk groups and the potential effects treatment might have on influenza hospitalizations. These effects have been quantified by using the mathematical model described in the Appendix. The length of the latent, noninfectious period was assumed to be 2 days (19 (link)), and the infectious period was assumed to be 4 days (19 (link),21 (link)). Hospitalization rates for the basline scenario were calculated by using data from interpandemic influenza and are given for different and age risk groups (Table 1 ).
To be effective, NI treatment must be administered within 48 hours of symptom onset. The efficacy of NI treatment appears to prevent 50% of hospitalizations, mirroring efficacy rates against developing complications; this efficacy rate is approximately the same for oseltamivir and zanamivir (13 (link)). Symptoms were also reduced by ≈1.5 days; treatment was assumed to produce the same decrease in the infectious period.
The population was stratified as for seasonal influenza; persons were considered to be either at high risk for severe outcome or at low risk (22 ). The at-risk group included those with chronic respiratory disease, chronic heart disease, chronic renal failure, diabetes mellitus, and immunosuppression; this group also included all persons living in long-term care facilities, such as nursing homes (23 ), and all those >65 years of age (24 (link)).
Demographic data used in the model were based on age-specific distribution of the UK population (Office for National Statistics.http://www.statistics.gov.uk ). The model was used to simulate a number of scenarios, on the basis of contingency plans and previous pandemics, to investigate the effect of targeting NIs to different age and risk groups on the expected number of hospitalizations during a pandemic.
To be effective, NI treatment must be administered within 48 hours of symptom onset. The efficacy of NI treatment appears to prevent 50% of hospitalizations, mirroring efficacy rates against developing complications; this efficacy rate is approximately the same for oseltamivir and zanamivir (13 (link)). Symptoms were also reduced by ≈1.5 days; treatment was assumed to produce the same decrease in the infectious period.
The population was stratified as for seasonal influenza; persons were considered to be either at high risk for severe outcome or at low risk (22 ). The at-risk group included those with chronic respiratory disease, chronic heart disease, chronic renal failure, diabetes mellitus, and immunosuppression; this group also included all persons living in long-term care facilities, such as nursing homes (23 ), and all those >65 years of age (24 (link)).
Demographic data used in the model were based on age-specific distribution of the UK population (Office for National Statistics.
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