Using the NHANES training data, we applied a Cox penalized regression model—where the hazard of aging-related mortality (mortality from diseases of the heart, malignant neoplasms, chronic lower respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, Alzheimer’s disease, Diabetes mellitus, nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis) was regressed on forty-two clinical markers and chronological age to select variables for inclusion in our phenotypic age score. Ten-fold cross-validation was employed to select the parameter value, lambda, for the penalized regression. In order to develop a sparse parsimonious age estimator (fewer biomarker variables preferred to produce robust results) we selected a lambda of 0.0192, which represented a one standard deviation increase over the lambda with minimum mean-squared error during cross-validation (Supplement 1: Fig. S13 ). Of the forty-two biomarkers included in the penalized Cox regression model, this resulted in ten variables (including chronological age) that were selected for the phenotypic age predictor.
These nine biomarkers and chronological age were then included in a parametric proportional hazards model based on the Gompertz distribution. Based on this model, we estimated the 10-year (120 months) mortality risk of the j-the individual. Next, the mortality score was converted into units of years (Supplement 1 ). The resulting phenotypic age estimate was regressed on DNA methylation data using an elastic net regression analysis. The penalization parameter was chosen to minimize the cross validated mean square error rate (Supplement 1: Fig. S14 ), which resulted in 513 CpGs.
These nine biomarkers and chronological age were then included in a parametric proportional hazards model based on the Gompertz distribution. Based on this model, we estimated the 10-year (120 months) mortality risk of the j-the individual. Next, the mortality score was converted into units of years (
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