Realist evaluations set out to develop, support, refute or refine aspects of realist programme theory (or theories). All programmes or initiatives will (implicitly or explicitly) have a programme theory or theories [32 ] – ideas about how the programme is expected to cause its intended outcomes – and these should be articulated here. Initial programme theories may or may not be realist in nature. As an evaluation progresses, a programme theory that was not initially realist in nature will need to be developed and refined so that it becomes a realist programme theory (that is, addressing all of context, mechanism and outcome) [33 ].
Programmes are theories incarnate. Within a realist evaluation, programme theory can serve many functions. One of its functions is to describe and explain (some of) how and why, in the ‘real world’, a programme ‘works’, for whom, to what extent and in which contexts (the assumption that the programmes will only work in some contexts and for some people, and that it may fire different mechanisms in different circumstances, thus generating different outcomes, is one of the factors that distinguishes realist programme theory from other types of programme theory). Other functions include focusing an evaluation, identifying questions, and determining what types of data need to be collected and from whom and where, in order to best support, refute or refine the programme theory. The refined programme theory can then serve many purposes for evaluation commissioners and end users [34 (link)]. It may support planning and decision-making about programme refinement, scaling out and so on.
Different processes can be used for ‘uncovering’ or developing initial programme theory, including literature review, programme documentation review, and interviews and/or focus groups with key informants. The processes used to develop the programme theory are usually different from those used later to refine it. The programme theory development processes needs to be clearly reported for the sake of transparency. The processes used for programme theory development may be reported here or in ‘Item 13: Data analysis’.
A figure or diagram may aid in the description of the programme theory. It may be presented early in the report or as an appendix.
Sometimes, the focus of the evaluation will not be ‘the programme itself’ but a particular aspect of, or question about, a programme (for example, how the programme affects other aspects of the system in which it operates). The theory that is developed or used in any realist evaluation will be relevant to the particular questions under investigation.
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